NASCAR Betting by the Numbers: Homestead-Miami Championship Predictions & Picks

With the 2018 NASCAR season coming to an end this weekend at Homestead-Miami, race fans will have their last chance to make some extra money for another 3 months. Not only is the race sure to be an exciting one, the 2018 NASCAR Champion will be crowned. This implies, NASCAR fans have the joy of two different major betting opportunities to make the most of.

While Vegas has introduced their odds for each driver to win the Ford EcoBoost 400 in Homestead-Miami, I’ve compiled data that reveals slightly different outcomes. By choosing to ignore past year’s performances at this course and instead focus on season finish averages according to 1.5 mile trail performances, I have created a list of drivers that are most likely to win this weekend. This list also allows us to evaluate each driver’s gaming yield based on their own Vegas odds.

Vegas Odds
Kevin Harvick: 11/4
Kyle Busch: 11/4
Kyle Larson: 3/1
Martin Truex Jr.: 6/1
Joey Logano: 10/1
Brad Keselowski: 15/1
Chase Elliott: 20/1
Denny Hamlin: 20/1
Clint Bowyer: 25/1
Kurt Busch: 25/1
Eric Jones: 30/1
Aric Almirola: 40/1
Ryan Blaney: 40/1
Austin Dillon: 80/1
Jimmie Johnson: 80/1
Daniel Su??rez: 100/1
1.5 Mile Finish Averages
Kyle Busch: 5.4 (2) ^1
Joey Logano: 7.25 (5) ^3
Martin Truex Jr.: 8.9 (4) ^1
Kevin Harvick: 9.3 (1) v3
Kyle Larson: 9.6 (3) v2
Brad Keselowski: 9.7 (6) —
Austin Dillon: 10.4 (14) ^7
Eric Jones: 10.6 (11) ^3
Aric Almirola: 12.6 (12) ^3
Ryan Blaney: 12.7 (13) ^3
Clint Bowyer: 13 (9) v2
Kurt Busch: 13 (10) v2
Chase Elliott: 13.9 (7) v6
Denny Hamlin: 14.8 (8) v6
Jimmie Johnson: 17.6 (15) —
Daniel Su??rez: 19.25 (16) —

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