This weekend we have the biggest competition we have ever observed for DraftKings MMA. We’ve got a $10 entrance competition with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of that to 1st place. I never thought we would observe a 6-figure 1st place trophy for MMA but I was wrong and that I can’t wait to pursue it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov is going to be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings simply made it even bigger for us DFS players. We are down to 12-fights so that we could see a number of ties for that 1st place prize, so strive to be different with your lineups someplace, or make salary on the dining table to differ in that way. With that said, here are a few plays I like this weekend along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the”safest” drama on the card by a fantastic margin in his -900 betting line. I love plugging in these high likelihood guys in money so I can lock a win in there and fret about locating 3 other wins out of my 5 other spots. We usually only need 4 wins in cash games to beat the money line, so that’s what I take for in these 50/50 or twice up games. Luque has been very remarkable in his UFC conduct and he’s overcome some pretty big names. On paper, this is one of his simplest matches nonetheless. He also has big time upside down with his completing potential. He has an ITD lineup of -270, so that I believe we can have 100+ points within this win. He’s a fantastic play in most formats, however he is going to be chalky in championships, so that’s why he is my money play of the week instead.
GPP drama of the week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are always good to aim in GPPs because it just takes 1 shot with a lot of those men. I think this is a good matchup for Volkov and he is priced at $8.7k weekly. If he can get a 1st round KO at that price, he will likely be on the winning LU. Same goes for Lewis, therefore he is a good GPP drama as well. But, my choice to win is going to be Volkov and I enjoy his cost. I think a few men priced over him this week will be a lot more possessed, therefore we could find a heavyweight favored at lower ownership here. Fight Doesn’t Go To Conclusion is presently lined at -190, therefore this is a fantastic GPP fight to target over all. If you enjoy the Black Beast to find the W, then he’s a good fighter to throw on your GPP LUs.
Underdog drama of the week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
Here is the best odds worth on the card. Currently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. However, on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 greater than Martin. I enjoy looking online worth like that which alone puts Martin in drama in most formats. Martin also has the better odds to end this fight ITD, so that is another and with him. I like the flooring for Martin in money games also since Laflare is not very likely to finish if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we could afford a loss from Martin and just take the things he can rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of the week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could get the win here. But he is going to need to get a end to pay off his $8.6k price tag. Sergio won’t be heading for almost any takedowns in this battle, and he doesn’t strike at a high enough rate for him to find 10x of the $8.6k. Sergio are the better fighter on the feet, but when he does not get an end he then probably only scores 60-70 points in a win. Those low scores don’t cut it at $8.6k. There are just better plays points each dollar and those are the guys I will be targeting. Sergio is a strong fade if you are making 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
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