NASCAR at Richmond odds, picks 2019: Model says Kyle Larson surprises at Toyota Owners 400

For the first time this year, NASCAR will be under the lights if the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Richmond Raceway. Kyle Busch enters 2019 NASCAR at Richmond as the pioneer in the NASCAR Dragon Energy Cup standings with 361 points. He is searching for his fourth win of this year and also the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 odds give him a 9-4 chance to get it as he starts in fifth place after qualifying. Kevin Harvick had the quickest pace in qualifying at 124.29 MPH, giving him the pole position. His NASCAR in Richmond odds have moved from 7-1 to 9-2. Martin Truex Jr. (6-1), Joey Logano (8-1) and Brad Keselowski (10-1) are one of the other top contenders at this .75-mile brief course. Before bending in any 2019 Toyota Owners 400 selections of your own, first be sure to check out the NASCAR predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track record and current results into account.

The version is off to a strong start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin that a top-four contender from the beginning. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers in the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano at its projected top . Additionally, it nailed Busch’s enormous win at Bristol a week. Anybody who has followed its selections is far up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events in iconic places like Richmond Raceway have been in his blood. His version simulated the 2019 Toyota Owners 400 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR in Richmond 2019, we can tell you the version is high on Kyle Larson, who makes a strong run at taking the checkered flag despite heading off at 25-1 NASCAR in Richmond odds.

Larson’s average finish at Richmond is 9.7, that’s the third-best among active drivers. He’s finished seventh or better in four of his last five events in Richmond and won the Richmond autumn race at 2017. He will start in 14th place after a slightly slower than anticipated qualifying time of 123.54 MPH. But he posted the quickest lap (121.70 MPH) at the first practice session on Friday, so he has shown the rate needed to scale the NASCAR at Richmond leaderboard on Saturday evening.

Along with a huge shocker: Truex Jr., among the best Vegas favorites at 6-1, doesn’t crack the top five. There are far better values in a wealthy 2019 NASCAR in Richmond lineup.

The 39-year-old veteran is sitting in the standings, but he’s tapered off lately. Truex finished 12th in Texas Motor Speedway and then fought last week in Bristol, ending 17th. In his profession, Truex hasn’t fared well at Richmond Raceway either. In reality, he’s finished in the top five only 3 times in 26 career starts at the track.

The version is also targeting two additional motorists with 2019 Toyota Owners 400 odds of 20-1 or even more time to make a serious run at winning it all. Anybody who backs these long shots could hit it big.

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